A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
